Abstract:

Narrow sense of overconfidence means people believe they are better than their actual selves, and generalized overconfidence means the mis-calibration in judgment and decision-making. Based on the theory of evolutionary psychology and ecological rational hypothesis, Johnson and Fowler (2011) put forward the evolution model of overconfidence. They hold overconfidence, as a rapid heuristic cognitive strategy and the result of evolutionary selection, owes an advantage in the adaptation and survival. According to the different assumptions of individual perceptual bias, evolution model is divided into binomial model and normal model, both of which lead to the consistent conclusions. Compared to the self-enhancement theory, differential weighting theory and the theoretical model of differential information, Evolution model, in spite of many advantages, is still restricted to some deficiencies. Hence, to go beyond those deficiencies, further empirical researches remains to be conducted to test and develop the evolution model.

Key words: overconfidence, evolution model, self-enhancement, differnetial weighting, differential information