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Acta Psychologica Sinica    2019, Vol. 51 Issue (3) : 337-352     DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2019.00337
Reports of Empirical Studies |
Similarity in processes of risky choice and intertemporal choice: The case of certainty effect and immediacy effect
ZHOU Lei1,2,3,LI Ai-Mei1,ZHANG Lei4,LI Shu2,3(),LIANG Zhu-Yuan2,3()
1 Management School, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China
2 CAS Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Institute of Psychology, Beijing 100101, China
3 Department of Psychology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4 Institute for Systems Neuroscience, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg 20246, Germany
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Abstract  

Risky choice (RC) and intertemporal choice (IC) are two types of common decisions that are vital to human’s everyday life. RC and IC share similarities regarding theoretical development, behavioral effects, and neural basis. One critical challenge is that, although previous studies have revealed that RC and IC involve similar cognitive processes, results are mixed regarding what the exact mechanism might be. The mainstream discounting model hypothesizes that both RC and IC follow a compensatory and alternative-based rule. However, other models suggest that RC and IC commonly involve non-compensatory and attribute-based processing. Moreover, prior studies primarily based their findings on outcome data and few have attempted to determine whether RC and IC shared a common decision process at the cognitive computational level.
To fill this gap, the present study adopts a systematic approach to disentangle the exact mechanism of RC and IC. We considered two well-studied behavioral effects, namely, certainty effect of RC and immediacy effect of IC, respectively, and compared their underlying local and holistic process characteristics by using eye-tracking technique. Besides, we employed hierarchical Bayesian modeling to assess whether alternative- or attribute-based models better fit both RC and IC. We designed a 2×2 within-subject paradigm, with the choice task (RC vs. IC) and the construct of decision options (with vs. without certain/immediate option) as factors. Thirty-three postgraduate students participated in our study. As we were particularly interested in two pairs of decision rules, i.e., compensatory/non-compensatory rules and alternative-based/attribute-based rules, we included a series of decision attributes that reflected them, based on the local and holistic process characteristics derived from eye-movement data to test our hypotheses.
Our entire set of analyses aimed to (1) determine whether the decision processes of RC and IC are similar and (2) identify the best computational model that is more suitable for both decisions. For the first aim, results show that RC and IC indeed share comparable decision processes, albeit having a few differences in other aspects. Specifically, RC and IC differ in process characteristics, such as complexity and holistic eye-movement dynamics, and IC is processed in a relatively more deliberate, deeper fashion than RC. However, they are similar in other characteristics, such as search direction, which is more relevant to making decisions. For the second aim, computational modeling of process characteristics suggests that both types of decisions are consistent with non-discounting models. In particular, results of search direction, in light of Bayesian model comparison, reveals that participants are more likely to follow the non-compensatory, attribute-based rule rather than the alternative-based/attribute-based rule when deciding for both RC and IC. Furthermore, different task constructs of decision options, i.e., with or without certain/immediate option, show distinct process characteristics, such as direction, complexity, and depth in both RC and IC.
To conclude, the present study shows that although differences exist between RC and IC, they indeed have shared cognitive mechanisms at the core of the decision processes. In both types of decisions, contrary to classic discounting models, individuals seem not to follow compensatory, attribute-based rules, which undergoes a “weighting and summing” or “delay discounting” process. Instead, they are more likely to use simple heuristic rules hypothesized by non-discounting models. Moreover, when including certain or immediate options, individuals tend to follow less compensatory and non-dominant (neither attribute-based nor alternative-based) rules. In sum, our findings not only provide a theoretical and empirical basis for the establishment of a common framework for RC and IC, but also provide a novel direction for thorough theoretical and methodological comparisons between variant decision tasks.

Keywords risky choice      intertemporal choice      eye-tracking      hierarchical Bayesian modeling      certainty effect      immediacy effect     
ZTFLH:  B849: C91  
Corresponding Authors: Shu LI,Zhu-Yuan LIANG     E-mail: lishu@psych.ac.cn;liangzy@psych.ac.cn
Issue Date: 22 January 2019
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Lei ZHOU
Ai-Mei LI
Lei ZHANG
Shu LI
Zhu-Yuan LIANG
Cite this article:   
Lei ZHOU,Ai-Mei LI,Lei ZHANG, et al. Similarity in processes of risky choice and intertemporal choice: The case of certainty effect and immediacy effect[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2019, 51(3): 337-352.
URL:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1041.2019.00337     OR     http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/EN/Y2019/V51/I3/337
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
模型类别 模型 风险决策任务 跨期决策任务
WAIC 预测率 WAIC 预测率
折扣模型 指数模型 1169.51 61.79% 885.61 71.60%
双曲线模型 1325.38 54.91% 787.39 76.01%
非折扣模型 启发式模型 682.42 80.46% 595.59 84.32%
  
决策特征 决策属性 分析指标 决策过程规则
风险任务 跨期任务
包含确定/
即刻选项
不含确定/
即刻选项
包含确定/
即刻选项
不含确定/
即刻选项
局部过程特征 加工复杂程度 单个注视点平均时长/长注视点比例 非补偿 非补偿 非补偿 非补偿
加工深度 注视量百分比 非补偿 非补偿 非补偿 非补偿
加工方向 SM值 无占优规则 基于维度 无占优规则 基于维度
整体过程特征 整体动态的眼动过程 眼动轨迹 无占优规则 基于维度 无占优规则 无占优规则
模型拟合 潜在的认知过程 分层贝叶斯模型拟合 基于维度 基于维度 基于维度 基于维度
  
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