Please wait a minute...
Acta Psychologica Sinica    2016, Vol. 48 Issue (10) : 1292-1301     DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2016.01292
|
The effect of psychological distance on the base-rate neglect
XU Fuming1,2; JIANG Duo3; ZHANG Hui1; LI Ou1; KONG Shixiao1; SHI Yanwei1
(1 School of Psychology, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China) (2 School of Psychology, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China) (3 College of Psychology and Sociology, Shenzhen University, Shenzhen 518060, China)
Download: PDF(400 KB)   Review File (1 KB) 
Export: BibTeX | EndNote | Reference Manager | ProCite | RefWorks    
Abstract  

The base-rate neglect refers to the phenomenon that individuals tend to underestimate or neglect base-rate information in probability judgment and decision-making. The phenomenon is widespread in daily behavioral decision-making. Since the concept of base-rate neglect has been proposed, the studies of its psychological mechanisms have reached well-documented results and conclusions. But the exploration for its influence factors turned out to be a conservative, thus few researches tried to shed light on its application. What’s more, there is little empirical study of base-rate neglect in China. Therefore, this study aims to verify the base-rate neglect in real decision-making situations, and explore how the psychological distance would affect the base-rate neglect. Study 1 carried out one experiment with 2 (temporal distance: distant vs. near) × 2 (base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design to examine the moderate effect of temporal distance. A total of 121 students were recruited. The results showed that the temporal distance affected the base-rate neglect under the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing temporal distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. Similarly, study 2 explored the effect of spatial distance on the base-rate neglect with 2 (spatial distance: distant vs. near) × 2 (base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design. A total of 122 students were recruited. The results indicated that the spatial distance affected the base-rate neglect in the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing spatial distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. The same with the pattern in study 1 and study 2, study 3 explored the effect of social distance on the base-rate neglect with 2 (social distance: distant vs. near) × 2 (base rate: high vs. low) between-subject design. A total of 144 students were recruited. It was found that the social distance affected the base-rate neglect in the selection circumstances, and that the base-rate neglect effect was weakened along with the increasing social distance, thus individuals tended to make probability judgments based on base rate. In sum, three studies provided consistent evidences that different dimensions of psychological distance, namely temporal distance, spatial distance and social distance could affect the relative weight according to case description information as well as base rate information in the base-rate neglect situations.

Keywords base-rate neglect      psychological distance      temporal distance      spatial distance      social distance     
Corresponding Authors: JIANG Duo, E-mail: duo12322@163.com; KONG Shixiao, E-mail: 631788507@qq.com    
Issue Date: 25 October 2016
Service
E-mail this article
E-mail Alert
RSS
Articles by authors
Cite this article:   
XU Fuming; JIANG Duo; ZHANG Hui; LI Ou; KONG Shixiao; SHI Yanwei. The effect of psychological distance on the base-rate neglect[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica,2016, 48(10): 1292-1301.
URL:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1041.2016.01292     OR     http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/EN/Y2016/V48/I10/1292
[1] GAO Juan,WANG Peng,Xiao Tian WANG,SUN Qian,LIU Yongfang. Effects of others’ reference points and psychological distance on self-other welfare tradeoff in gain and loss situations[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2020, 52(5): 633-644.
[2] ZHANG Pengcheng,LI Yangzhuo,ZHOU Shujin,GAO Xiangping,PAN Xin. Enhancement effect of near spatial distance on self-referential processing: Evidence from behavioral and ERPs studies[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2019, 51(8): 879-889.
[3] WANG Pei, TAN Chenhao, CUI Yichen.  Should I sacrifice my profit before his eyes? Partner’s ability and social distance affecting the tendency of reputation-profit game[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2017, 49(9): 1206-1218.
[4] PENG Ming, JING Wenying, CAI Mengfei, ZHOU Zongkui.  Perceptual difference between internet words and real-world words: temporal perception, distance perception, and perceptual scope[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2017, 49(7): 866-874.
[5] HE Guibing, YANG Xinwei, JIANG Duo.  The effect of altruism on social discounting of environmental gain and loss[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2017, 49(10): 1334-1343.
[6] CHEN Jiebin; LU Zhongyi. The Effect of Route-angularity on Spatial Situation Model Constructing in Text[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2015, 47(2): 176-189.
[7] ZHANG Feng;SHEN Zhimei. The Absence of the Automatic Association between Behavioral Representation Level and Psychological Distance: Evidence from a Picture-word Stroop Task[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2014, 46(9): 1317-1330.
[8] LING Bin;WANG Zhongming. The Effects of Temporal Distance on Confirmatory Information Processing[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2014, 46(8): 1176-1191.
[9] CHEN Haixian;HE Guibing. The Effect of Psychological Distance on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Choice[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2014, 46(5): 677-690.
[10] XIN Ziqiang;XIN Sufei. The Influence of Trustees’ Social Identity Complexity on Their Trustworthiness[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2014, 46(3): 415-426.
[11] ZHANG Wei; LIU Yongfang; SUN Qingzhou; HU Qixu ; LIU Yi. Risk Preference in Making Romantic Relationship Decisions for Others with Different Psychological Distance[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2014, 46(10): 1580-1590.
[12] ZHAO Delei. Effects of Stigmatized Identities on Interpersonal Influence and Social Distance[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2013, 45(11): 1283-1294.
[13] HE Guibing;JIANG Duo. The Effect of Task Frames and Altruism on Social Discounting[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2013, 45(10): 1131-1146.
[14] LIU Hong-Yan,LI Ai-Mei,WANG Hai-Zhong,WEI Hai-Ying. The Effect of Promotion Types on Consumers’ Purchase Decisions: From the Perspective of Construal Level Theory[J]. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2012, 44(8): 1100-1113.
[15] SONG Guang-Wen,XIA Xing-Xing,LI Cheng-Zong,HE Yun-Feng. Influences of Temporal Distances, Cover Story, and Probability on Framing Effect[J]. , 2012, 44(7): 957-963.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
Copyright © Acta Psychologica Sinica
Support by Beijing Magtech