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心理学报
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频率树对因果强度推理的促进作用
刘雁伶1,陈军2,沈友田2,2,胡竹菁3
1. 江西科技师范大学教育学院
2.
3. 江西师范大学心理学院
The promotion of causal inference by cumulative frequency tree
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摘要 两个实验采用相同的完全随机实验设计,分别探讨树形图是否影响大学生被试在反事实提问和能力提问因果推理问题上的作答表现。结果显示:(1)最常见的强度估计模式包括ΔP、Power-PC、P(E/C)(产生式)或P(-E/C)(预防式),每种作答模式的出现比例因实验条件不同而发生变化;(2)在两个实验中都发现了明显的图形促进效应:被试在借助提供嵌套集合关系的树形图辅助推理时使用Power-PC值估计因果强度的概率远高于在借助隐藏嵌套集合关系的树状图辅助推理时的概率;(3)反事实提问引导被试关注目标原因导致的效果,但不保证被试使用Power-PC估计因果强度。结果说明:明确数据之间的嵌套集合关系能极大地提高被试使用Power-PC估计因果强度的概率,关注焦点集信息有助于被试明确数据间的嵌套集合关系方法。
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刘雁伶 陈军 沈友田 胡竹菁
Abstract:There are lots of evidences show that participant’s performance on bayesian inference、syllogistic reasoning and probability reasoning could been promoted by cumulative frequency tree, but very few study focus on the promotion effect of frequency tree on causal reasoning. The study conducted four experiments to explore the impact of frequency tree on causal strength inference, research hypothesis include (a)The boundary of frequency facilitating lies in the supply of focus set or not: frequency tree which supplies focus set can improve rationality of participant reasoning, frequency tree which conceals focus set can’t improve rationality of reasoning; (b)participant estimate causal strength of different contingency by different mode in experimental treatment that adopted frequency tree which conceal focus set, but by the same mode in experimental treatment that adopted frequency tree which supply focus set, and (c)counter-factual question bring more rational reasoning than ability question. 2(frequency tree, level 1: supply focus set, level 2: conceal focus set) x3 (contingency, level 1: Δp=0.33 and Power-PC=0.5; level 2: Δp=0.33 and Power-PC=0.83; level 3: Δp=0.67 and Power-PC=0.83) completely random design were used in all experiments. 231 undergraduate students participated in Experiment 1 which adopted counter-factual question and production contingency, 238 participated in Experiment 2 which adopted counter-factual question and prevention contingency, 238 participated in Experiment 3 which adopted ability question and production contingency, 225 participated in Experiment 4 which adopted ability question and prevention contingency. Contingency offered by a booklet which contain 30 page, each page present one sample of causal. Participant completed a frequency tree base on contingency, and made causal strength estimate individual. Results show that (a)there are three common models of causal reasoning:Δp, Power-PC and P(e/c)(P(-e/c) for prevent contingency), the most popular model changes with the change of experiment treatment; (b)Most subjects(70.06% on average) estimate causal strength by Power-PC model when they reason by the aid of frequency tree that supplying focus set, and only a few participants(mean 21.28%) estimate causal strength by Power-PC model when they reason by the aid of frequency tree that concealing focus set; (c)Counter-factual question can lead to subjects focus on the information of focus set, but it can’t guarantee subjects to estimate causal strength by Power-PC model; (d)there were no causal direction effect on participant’s causal strength estimate. Experiment results fully support research hypothesis (a) and (b), and partial support research hypothesis (c). The frequency facilitating depend on supply focus set or not, whether in counter-factual question treatment or in ability question treatment. It seem that participant apt to make rational causal inference when they reason by the aid of frequency tree that supply focus set and when they are questioned by counter-factual format.
收稿日期: 2016-11-09      出版日期: 2018-01-08
基金资助:国家自然科学基金青年项目;江西省社会科学十三五规划课题;江西省教育科学十三五规划重点课题
通讯作者: 胡竹菁   
引用本文:   
刘雁伶 陈军 沈友田 胡竹菁. 频率树对因果强度推理的促进作用[J]. 心理学报, .
链接本文:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/CN/Y0/V/I/0
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