ISSN 0439-755X
CN 11-1911/B
主办:中国心理学会
   中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理学报 ›› 2001, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (01): 68-74.

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群体决策过程中的信息取样偏差

郑全全;朱华燕;胡凌雁;吴昌旭;丁岳枫   

  1. 浙江大学心理学系!杭州 310028,浙江大学心理学系!杭州 310028,浙江大学心理学系!杭州 310028,浙江大学心理学系!杭州 310028,浙江大学心理学系!杭州 310028
  • 出版日期:2001-02-25 发布日期:2001-02-25
  • 通讯作者: 郑全全

THE BIASED INFORMATION SAMPLING IN GROUP DECISION MAKING

Zheng Quanquan ;Zhu Huayan; Hu Lingyan; Wu Changxu ;Ding Yuefeing (Department of Psychology, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310028)   

  • Online:2001-02-25 Published:2001-02-25

摘要: 一般认为,决策群体的优势是能综合各个成员拥有的不完整信息,形成对所有决策备择方案的无偏差的认识,从而作出最佳选择。但“群体讨论中的有偏差信息取样模型”认为,群体在决策中往往表现出倾向于讨论两种信息:(1)各成员讨论前都拥有的信息;(2)支持成员在讨论前所偏好的信息。该实验通过模拟人员选拔决策形式的实验室实验,对这一模型的假设进行验证。研究结果表明,大多数群体选择了一开始受到大多数成员支持的候选人,而非实际的最佳人选;群体讨论非但未纠正,反而加强了成员对候选人原有的歪曲印象。

关键词: 群体决策, 信息取样, 偏差

Abstract: It is commonly known that the benefit of decision-making group could pool me mbers’ partial information. The groups could compose an unbiased recognition of the decision alternatives and then make the best decision. However, the biased sampling model of group discussion suggested that group members often fail to ef fectively pool their information because of two kinds of tendencies: (1) Informa tion that members held in common before discussion and (2) information that supp orted members’existing preferences. This study tested the above hypotheses of t he model by a simulation in laboratory experiments of selection of candidates fo r student body president and then met in 4-person groups to decide which candida te was best suited for the position. 180 Zhejiang University undergraduates part icipated in these experiments under 3 conditions. Assignment to experimental con dition and to decision-making groups within conditions was random. There were 60 subjects of 15 groups in each of the shared, unshared/consensus and unshared/ conflict conditions. Their preference and information about each candidate they could remember in pre-and post-discussion were measured on questionnaires, which were compared by several methods. The results showed: most of the groups decide d in favor of the candidate initially preferred by most of the members rather th an the most favorable candidates. The data of group members’ pre-and post-discu ssion recall of candidate attributes indicated that discussion tended to perpetu ate, not to correct members’ distorted pictures of the candidates. The results confirmed the hypotheses of the biased sampling model of group discussion propos ed by Stasser and Larson. In order to improve the efficiency of pooling informat ion in group decision-making, some measures, such as giving group decision train ing in advance, were also suggested by this study.

Key words: decision-making group, information sampling, bias