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有中介的调节模型检验方法:甄别和整合
叶宝娟;温忠麟
(1江西师范大学心理学院, 南昌 330022) (2华南师范大学心理应用研究中心, 广州 510631)
A Discussion on Testing Methods for Mediated Moderation Models: Discrimination and Integration
YE Baojuan;WEN Zhonglin
(1 School of Psychology, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China) (2Center for Studies of Psychological Application, South China Normal University, Guangzhou 510631, China)
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摘要 在心理和教育研究中, 经常遇到调节和中介效应。模型包含不止3个变量时, 可能同时包含调节和中介变量, 一种常见的模型是有中介的调节模型。本文评介了文献上可以找到的五种检验有中介的调节模型的方法, 逐一甄别, 指出其中一些不合理之处, 并推荐较好的方法。整合其中主要方法, 总结出检验有中介的调节模型的流程, 用偏差校正的百分位Bootstrap 法或马尔科夫链蒙特卡罗法检验其中的中介效应, 并用一个实际例子演示如何用此流程检验有中介的调节模型。
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叶宝娟
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关键词 调节中介有中介的调节Bootstrap法MCMC法    
Abstract:Moderation and mediation are frequently used in the research of psychology and behavior. Moderation occurs when the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable varies according to the level of a third variable, termed as moderator, which interacts with the independent variable. Moderation focuses on factors that influence the strength and/or direction of the relation between the independent variable and dependent variable. Mediation indicates that the effect of an independent variable on a dependent variable is transmitted through a third variable, which is called mediator. Mediation addresses how that effect is produced. It is not uncommon for hypotheses about moderation and mediation relationships to occur in the same context. Models in which interaction effects are hypothesized to be mediated are appearing with increasing frequency. When a moderating effect is transmitted through a mediator, the effect is termed mediated moderation and the model is mediated moderator model. For example, stressful life events moderated the effect of sensation seeking on tobacco and alcohol use, and this moderation effect is mediated by affiliation with deviant peers. There are at least five methods for testing mediated moderation models. But some of the methods are difficult to be understood and explained. After discussing the merits and demerits of different methods, we propose a procedure for testing mediated moderation models. The newly proposed procedure is likely to be better than any single testing method in terms of the sum of type 1 and type 2 error rates. The procedure is summarized as below: (1) Regress Y on X, U, and UX. A significant coefficient (c3) associated with UX implies that U is the moderator of the relation between Y and X. Stop if the coefficient (c3) associated with UX is not significant. (2) Regress W on X, U, and UX. Regress Y on X, U, W, UX and UW. The moderated effect of U on the relation between Y and X is mediated by W if the coefficient (a3) from UX to W and the coefficient (b1) from W to Y are both significant, or/and the coefficient (a3) from UX to W and the coefficient (b2) from UW to Y are both significant. U indirectly moderates the effect of X on Y by moderating the effect of W on Y if the coefficient (a1) from X to Y and the coefficient (b2) from UW to Y are both significant. In other cases, we should go to step (4). (3) The moderated effect is completely mediated if the coefficient ( ) from UX to Y is not significant in step (2). The moderated effect is partially mediated if the coefficient ( ) from UX to Y is still significant in step (2). Testing is over. (4) Compute the confidence intervals of a3b1, a3b2 and a1b2, by using bias-corrected percentile Bootstrap method (if no prior information is available) or Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (if prior information is available). The mediated effect of W is significant if at least one of the confidence intervals of a3b1, a3b2 and a1b2 does not contain 0. In this case, we should go to step (3). Otherwise, the mediated moderation effect is not significant and testing is over. As an illustration, the procedure is applied to an empirical study in which stressful life events moderated the effect of sensation seeking on tobacco and alcohol use, and this moderation effect is mediated by affiliation with deviant peers. The procedure can be extended to the situation where latent variables are used. When a standardized solution is pursued, we should use appropriate standardized solution rather than a standardized solution obtained directly from software output, which is usually inappropriate when a moderation effect is involved in the model.
Key wordsmoderation    mediation    mediated moderation    Bootstrap method    MCMC method
收稿日期: 2012-08-29      出版日期: 2013-09-25
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金(31271116)、教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目(11JJD190005)、教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(13YJC190029)和江西师范大学青年英才培育资助计划资助。

通讯作者: 温忠麟   
引用本文:   
叶宝娟;温忠麟. 有中介的调节模型检验方法:甄别和整合[J]. 心理学报, 10.3724/SP.J.1041.2013.01050.
YE Baojuan;WEN Zhonglin. A Discussion on Testing Methods for Mediated Moderation Models: Discrimination and Integration. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2013, 45(9): 1050-1060.
链接本文:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1041.2013.01050      或      http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlxb/CN/Y2013/V45/I9/1050
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