ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

Advances in Psychological Science ›› 2014, Vol. 22 ›› Issue (12): 1837-1854.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2014.01837

• Special Column for Decision-making Psychology •     Next Articles

An Overview of Judgment and Decision Making Research Through the Lens of Fuzzy Trace Theory

Roni Setton; Evan Wilhelms; Becky Weldon; Christina Chick; Valerie Reyna   

  1. (Departments of Human Development and Psychology, Human Neuroscience Institute, Center for Behavioral Economics and Decision Research, Cornell University, USA)
  • Received:2014-10-15 Online:2014-12-15 Published:2014-12-15
  • Contact: Valerie Reyna

Abstract:

We present the basic tenets of fuzzy trace theory, a comprehensive theory of memory, judgment, and decision making that is grounded in research on how information is stored as knowledge, mentally represented, retrieved from storage, and processed. In doing so, we highlight how it is distinguished from traditional models of decision making in that gist reasoning plays a central role. The theory also distinguishes advanced intuition from primitive impulsivity. It predicts that different sorts of errors occur with respect to each component of judgment and decision making: background knowledge, representation, retrieval, and processing. Classic errors in the judgment and decision making literature, such as risky-choice framing and the conjunction fallacy, are accounted for by fuzzy trace theory and new results generated by the theory contradict traditional approaches. We also describe how developmental changes in brain and behavior offer crucial insight into adult cognitive processing. Research investigating brain and behavior in developing and special populations supports fuzzy trace theory’s predictions about reliance on gist processing.

Key words: decision making, fuzzy trace theory, risk, rationality, neuroscience, development