ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

›› 2012, Vol. 20 ›› Issue (7): 1080-1088.

• 研究前沿 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

The Confirmation Bias in Judgment and Decision Making

WU Xiu-Liang;XU Fu-Ming;WANG Wei;MA Xiang-Yang;KUANG Hai-Min   

  1. (Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education; School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province, Wuhan 430079, China)
  • Received:2011-12-12 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2012-07-15 Published:2012-07-15
  • Contact: XU Fu-Ming

Abstract: Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek out information or interpret evidence in ways that are partial to existing beliefs, expectation, or hypothesises and to ignore or overlook information that is potentially inconsistent. This tendency is universal in behavioral decision making. Currently, researchers explicating the generation mechanism of confirmation bias, have proposed theories like positive-test strategy, cognitive dissonance theory and error avoidance phenomenon. In addition, researches highlighted moderating variables, including need for cognitive closure, abstractness of materials, experience, and conditional reference frame, to which confirmation bias may be subjected. Though a largely implacable cognitive tendency, confirmation bias can be abated through analysis of competing hypotheses and a consideration of the opposite. Moreover, directions for future study on confirmation bias are discussed.

Key words: confirmation bias, positive-test strategy, cognitive dissonance theory, error avoidance