ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R

›› 2011, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (10): 1417-1425.

• 博士论坛 • Previous Articles     Next Articles

From Multiple-play to Single-play in Risky Decision Making: Quantitative Change or Qualitative Change?

SUN Hong-Yue;SU Yin;ZHOU Kun;LI Shu   

  1. (1 Key Laboratory of Behavioral Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)
    (2 Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)
    (3 College of Safety Science & Engineering, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)
  • Received:2011-09-13 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2011-10-15 Published:2011-10-15
  • Contact: LI Shu

Abstract: In risky decision making, the subtle interplay between single-play and multiple-play is well illustrated by the literature that has followed an early paper by Paul Samuelson (1963). The article summarized the difference between responses for single-play and multiple-play and questioned traditional theoretical explanations. Most risky decision-making theories are based on the same assumption: a rational decision maker behaves as if he or she were attempting to maximize some kind of expectation. However, based on a combination of research evidence, maybe we could infer that the multiple-play and single-play gambles were in fact so utterly different that the short run one was perhaps not based on the expectation rule. From multiple-play to single-play, it is likely to represent a strategy shift from expectation rule to non-compensatory rule (qualitative change) rather than pure change on the number of gamble times (quantitative change). The status and perspectives on the applied researches of multiple-play were introduced and the research prospect was put forward as well.

Key words: multiple-play, single-play, risky decision making, expectation rule