ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

›› 2009, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (2): 325-333.

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Theories and Influential Factors of Hindsight Bias

GONG Meng-Yuan; XU Fu-Ming; FANG Fang   

  1. Department of Psychology, Huazhong Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China
  • Received:2008-10-24 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2009-03-15 Published:2009-03-15

Abstract: Hindsight bias refers to people’s overestimation of their predictability on the outcome of previous events after they have known the results. Research suggested that this may due to the distortion of previous memory, induced impressions of predictability or the impressions of necessity. Many studies suggested that the bias was widely observed in both labs and real situations, and was difficult to be debiased by using strategies. Relevant theoretical models were mainly based on cognitive processes and social motives, and many factors such as research methods, personal traits, ability variables, personal-relevance and event valence were found influential. Future studies should focus on the integration of various theories, and the exploration of debiasing strategies in application

Key words: Hindsight bias, cognitive process, social motives, debiasing strategy

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