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Advances in Psychological Science    2015, Vol. 23 Issue (6) : 967-978     DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2015.00967
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Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment
LIU Chenghao; XU Fuming; WANG Wei; LI Yan; SHI Yanwei
(School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province; Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education, Wuhan 430079, China)
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Abstract  

The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment refers to a phenomenon of probability judgment bias, which results from violating the conjunction rules of event occurrence probability and regarding that the occurrence probability of conjunction event that contains multiple independent events is greater than that of conjunct events in it. The definition standard of conjunction fallacy is incongruent. The relevant mental mechanism includes causal model theory, confirmation theory and surprise theory and so on, and many factors affect conjunction fallacy, like frequency effect, training effect, individual differences, and many others. Studies in the future should combine the mental mechanism of inverse conjunction fallacy to perfect the existing explanatory theory, meanwhile, the conjunction fallacy in application and its irrationality should be noticed.

Keywords conjunction fallacy      psychological mechanism      effect factors      inverse conjunction fallacy      irrationality     
Corresponding Authors: XU Fuming, E-mail: fumingxu@126.com   
Issue Date: 25 June 2015
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LIU Chenghao
XU Fuming
WANG Wei
LI Yan
SHI Yanwei
Cite this article:   
LIU Chenghao,XU Fuming,WANG Wei, et al. Conjunction Fallacy in Probability Judgment[J]. Advances in Psychological Science, 2015, 23(6): 967-978.
URL:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/10.3724/SP.J.1042.2015.00967     OR     http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/EN/Y2015/V23/I6/967
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