ISSN 1671-3710
CN 11-4766/R
主办:中国科学院心理研究所
出版:科学出版社

心理科学进展 ›› 2010, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (8): 1246-1255.

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情感预测偏差的相关研究评述

刘聪慧;张耀华;俞国良   

  1. (1中国人民大学心理学系, 北京 100872) (2中国人民大学心理研究所, 北京 100872)
    (3认知神经科学与学习国家重点实验室, 北京师范大学, 北京 100875)
  • 收稿日期:2009-11-03 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2010-08-15 发布日期:2010-08-15
  • 通讯作者: 俞国良

Affective Forecasting Biases and Related Studies

LIU Cong-Hui;ZHANG Yao-Hua;YU Guo-Liang   

  1. (1Department of Psychology, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)
    (2Institute of Psychology, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)
    (3State Key Laboratory of Cognitive Neuroscience and Learning, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China)
  • Received:2009-11-03 Revised:1900-01-01 Online:2010-08-15 Published:2010-08-15
  • Contact: YU Guo-Liang

摘要: 情感预测是预测将来的情绪状态。情感预测时会表现出各种偏差, 例如免疫性忽略、聚焦错觉和共情鸿沟。本文从认知–体验自我理论和心理模拟的角度对情感预测偏差的原因进行了整合, 对情感预测偏差的个体差异和矫正进行了分析。情感预测的未来研究方向应该从心理-行为机制、进化机制和脑机制几个方面展开。

关键词: 情感预测, 偏差, 认知–体验自我理论, 心理模拟

Abstract: Affective forecasting refers to the prediction of one’s emotional state in the future. This kind of prediction is affected by various kinds of cognitive biases, i.e. immune neglect, focalism and empathy gap. This article integrated the causes of these cognitive biases from the point of view of cognitive-experiential self theory and mental simulation, introduced individual differences and interventions of affective forecasting biases. In the end, the possible trends for the future research focus on psychology-behavior mechanism, evolutionary and brain mechanism of affective forecasting.

Key words: affective forecasting, bias, cognitive–experiential self theory, mental simulation