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心理科学进展  2016, Vol. 24 Issue (3): 422-430    DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2016.00422
  研究前沿 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
判断与决策中的投射偏差
徐富明;李欧;邓颖;李燕;史燕伟
(华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室;
青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室, 武汉 430079)
The projection bias in judgment and decision-making
XU Fuming; LI Ou; DENG Ying; LI Yan; SHI Yanwei
(School of Psychology, Central China Normal University; Key Laboratory of Human Development and Mental Health of Hubei Province; Key Laboratory of Adolescent Cyberpsychology and Behavior (CCNU), Ministry of Education, Wuhan 430079, China)
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摘要 

投射偏差是指个体常常会高估未来偏好与当前偏好的一致性, 从而把当前偏好投射到未来的心理倾向性。本文从情感–认知加工、时间修正和心理模拟等视角对投射偏差的心理机制进行了解释, 并概括出投射偏差的内源性(含内脏感觉、情绪状态和需要)和外源性(含事件相关信息、天气状况和选择情境)影响因素, 还总结归纳出投射偏差的三种应对策略, 最后指出了投射偏差在未来研究的方向。

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徐富明
李欧
邓颖
李燕
史燕伟
关键词 投射偏差情感–认知加工共情鸿沟时间修正心理模拟    
Abstract

Projection bias is one of the cognitive biases that individuals are prone to project their current preference to future preference prediction and to exaggerate the degree to which their future preference will resemble their current one. Many previous studies have observed and demonstrated this kind of phenomenon in different judgment and decision-making situations. Psychological mechanisms of the projection bias consist in affect-cognition processing, temporal correction, and mental simulation. The factors influencing the projection bias primarily consist of both endogenous factors (including visceral feeling, emotional state and need) and exogenous factors (including event-related information, weather condition and choosing situation). In addition, three kinds of coping strategies of projecting bias are summarized. In the end, this review points out several promising research topics that future researchers of the projection bias may probe into.

Key wordsprojection bias    affect-cognition processing    empathy gap    temporal correction    mental simulation
收稿日期: 2014-12-06      出版日期: 2016-03-15
基金资助:

国家自然科学基金面上项目(71571083)资助。

通讯作者: 徐富明, E-mail: fumingxu@126.com   
引用本文:   
徐富明;李欧;邓颖;李燕;史燕伟. 判断与决策中的投射偏差[J]. 心理科学进展, 2016, 24(3): 422-430.
XU Fuming; LI Ou; DENG Ying; LI Yan; SHI Yanwei. The projection bias in judgment and decision-making. Advances in Psychological Science, 2016, 24(3): 422-430.
链接本文:  
http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/CN/10.3724/SP.J.1042.2016.00422      或      http://journal.psych.ac.cn/xlkxjz/CN/Y2016/V24/I3/422
[1] 曲方炳;殷融;钟元;叶浩生. 语言理解中的动作知觉:基于具身认知的视角[J]. 心理科学进展, 2012, 20(6): 834-842.
[2] 刘聪慧;张耀华;俞国良. 情感预测偏差的相关研究评述[J]. 心理科学进展, 2010, 18(08): 1246-1255.
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